Poll: What month will album #10 drop?

[Csar]

Let's keep the hype rolling. As an announcement for a new album seems to be around the corner, what month do you think it's going to be released?

[Enjoyed]

Some VERY optimistic guesses in there!

As a comparison, Gorillaz announced Cracker Island (which released last week) back in August of last year.

[hstn]

Some VERY optimistic guesses in there!

As a comparison, Gorillaz announced Cracker Island (which released last week) back in August of last year.

cracker island has had the worst album rollout I've EVER seen in recent memory....especially for being announced that early and all the non-stop posts and vinyl variants and bonus material, it took a long time for people to even recall what the title actually was!!!

really hoping though that the chems are a bit more timely and ration the hype, imagining the live shows will speak for themselves though 
 
April would honestly be nice but I figure May-June seems more likely for XDUST12, seemed the last two albums had at least a few major singles released in build-up, imagining No Reason and Dreaming will act as such

[Heads]

Album release before the summer tour would be logical, unless they will only tour with only the No Reason single.

There's been some releases with long, drawn out campaigns, but then again a lot of albums still have that normal 1-2 month lead up.

[Stefan]

Well, my sophisticated and thorough statistical analysis¹ tells me that it should've arrived around April 2nd 2022, but might be as late as March 8th, 2024.


¹: Using math wich I have only a very basic understanding of, which naturally makes me more confident in the calculations

[Bosco]

Doesn't a commercial release like Gorillaz's "Cracker Island" have an objective to cover some heavy expenses, thus typically has to work on the most advantageous time-line of the record label?

As much as we love The Chemical Brothers here, I don't think they'll ever sniff the production costs of a Gorillaz release. I would imagine anything before or at the start of music festival season, is probably a goal.

[Csar]

Well, my sophisticated and thorough statistical analysis¹ tells me that it should've arrived around April 2nd 2022, but might be as late as March 8th, 2024.


¹: Using math wich I have only a very basic understanding of, which naturally makes me more confident in the calculations

I'd say a confidence interval of about 2 years sounds reasonable (if we take BITE out of the equation)

[Enjoyed]

Ok. So maybe Gorillaz wasn't the best comparison...

Not sure who really fits into the same kind of bracket though. I'll give you that Cracker Island would have been designed to benefit from an extended runway, but Chems also has a substantial following, no?

• Dutch Uncles - Album comes out next week. Announced October of last year: 5 months
• Bonobo (for the mistaken writing credit link mentioned in another thread)-  Fragments came out last January. Announced early October: 3 months
• Anjunadeep releases seem to be around 3 months.
• Foals was a 3 month lead time.

3 months seeming pretty standard then? That's better news!

[Bosco]

M83 announced in January and is releasing this month. And I would say that he's a close comparison in terms of bulk fanbase.

As a matter of fact, in realtime, Anthony Gonzalez probably nets more attention. He's still relatively close to his peak in success and his demographic/fanbase are still very active.

That being said, quality of output is nowhere near comparable. Of course this is all subjective, but even I think Anthony would agree.

[Wolkenkrabber]

The studio instagram post with Steve Dub and the loose knob suggested strongly that TDTYF is on the new album. It would make sense insofar as it's the first post-NG music to be released. So it's part of the current cycle.
If we count that as the first new music from the album then we've waited quite a while already! The "Dreaming" and "No Reason" tracks have also been part of the live set for a while now.

The most recent insta post - as Stefan pointed out - lists all the Chems albums as hashtags and then lists #NoReason.
I think we can be pretty sure that the track No Reason is imminent (as per BenJ's Youtube comments etc). If (as suggested by Friday's insta post) the album carries the same name as the single, surely it would make sense to release that album within a couple of weeks of the single - from a promotional point of view.

The summer isn't a great time to release albums. People traditionally "buy" less albums in the summer - they're being outdoors-y or going on holidays or festival-ing.
So it's spring or autumn. Autumn is too far away, as per my comments above about tying the album in with the single. So it's got to be a spring release!

Incidentally, can members of The ChemBase team see who voted for what in the above poll?
If my vote is correct, I'll obviously want to make a big fuss about it!

[Stefan]

I'd say a confidence interval of about 2 years sounds reasonable (if we take BITE out of the equation)

That was pretty much my approach, to assume that the time between two following records follows a normal distribution
8 data points is of course not much to work with and it's also probably hilarously wrong to approach this kind of problem with such a method anyway.


Why wouldn't we take BITE into the equation? It's a studio album release, am I something missing?

[Stefan]

The studio instagram post with Steve Dub and the loose knob suggested strongly that TDTYF is on the new album.

If TDTYF makes it onto the new album, that would make it the longest delay between first single and album release, by a factor of about 3. (so far, that is 196 days between Free Yourself and No Geography)

[ThePumisher]

If TDTYF makes it onto the new album, that would make it the longest delay between first single and album release, by a factor of about 3. (so far, that is 196 days between Free Yourself and No Geography)

Meanwhile on planet dust Song To The Siren starts crying and doesn't know why 

[Csar]

That was pretty much my approach, to assume that the time between two following records follows a normal distribution
8 data points is of course not much to work with and it's also probably hilarously wrong to approach this kind of problem with such a method anyway.

Edit: By the way, looks like a bell curve is what we're going to get, or "the finger", depending on how you look at it at the moment 

Why wouldn't we take BITE into the equation? It's a studio album release, am I something missing?

BITE was the outlier so far with its roughly 5 years between releases.

Incidentally, can members of The ChemBase team see who voted for what in the above poll?

Nope, can't. Or maybe I could and I don't know how.

[Stefan]

Edit: By the way, looks like a bell curve is what we're going to get, or "the finger", depending on how you

I didn't bother looking into how the Data is distributed, I just assumed it's a normal distribution

BITE was the outlier so far with its roughly 5 years between releases.

I know, but it is wat it is. If we dismiss it, then the time between Further and NG would be an even greater outlier.

[Stefan]

Meanwhile on planet dust Song To The Siren starts crying and doesn't know why 

Ohhhh good point, there is clearly an error in my spreadsheet.
I've listed STTS as first single, but entered June 5th 1995 as release date, which would be the date for Leave Home, which Wikipedia lists as the first official single.

[Csar]

I didn't bother looking into how the Data is distributed, I just assumed it's a normal distribution

I know, but it is wat it is. If we dismiss it, then the time between Further and NG would be an even greater outlier.

Oh no, I just wanted to play along with your math notion and my comment was purely about the time gap between Further and BITE, making it an "outlier" statistically.

And I also only looked at the above shape of the bars (after your mentioning of distribution) that indeed looked like either a bell curve or some six-fingered person flipping the bird

[Stefan]

The gap between NG and the new one will also be at the long range, but I have a feeling that the fucking plague might've delayed it a bit.

[ThePumisher]

I've listed STTS as first single, but entered June 5th 1995 as release date

The Diamond Records version was self-released by Tom & Ed (as Dust Brothers) in October 1992

[rynostar]

Incidentally, can members of The ChemBase team see who voted for what in the above poll?
If my vote is correct, I'll obviously want to make a big fuss about it!

Nope, can't. Or maybe I could and I don't know how.

We're a democracy here! Or at least I think we are? We don't have to disclose our vote unless we choose to do so.

Edit: I voted June. Thinking early as it's after the US tour leg and right as the Summer Festival season begins.